An Experiment on the Ellsberg Paradox

Experimental results on the Ellsberg paradox typically reveal behavior that is commonly interpreted as ambiguity aversion. The experiments reported in the current paper were intended to examine the extent to which such ambiguity aversion can be captured by the Hurwicz criterion. However, contrary to our expectations, Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason performed substantially better than rival theories in our experiment, with ambiguity aversion appearing only as a secondary phenomenon.